Dollarisation an Economic time bomb( published in the independent, Newvision and Monitor)

In recent times, the media has been awash with digital migration, a term that has cascaded into politics, digital and analogue presidential candidates. Kampala waved good bye to analogue signal in June and since there have been massive adverts for digital migration. As a recent recruit to DSTV in recent months, I have noticed that the pricing for the different packages has been on an upward swing largely pegged on the exchange rate. Another classic example of business pegged to the foreign currency is the Electricity Regulatory Authority pricing of electricity units, which has stifled debate among economic practitioners regarding the use of exchange rate as variable for adjusting electricity tariffs when it is already captured in the core inflation computation. Pegging of business pricing to exchange rate is essentially used by investors to cover the exchange rate risk, often time known as covered interest rate arbitrage.

In the extreme case, a country with perpetually weak currencies will face a situation where the citizens of a country officially or unofficially use a foreign country’s currency as legal tender for conducting transactions. Increasingly the major shopping malls around Kampala charge rental space in the US dollars and so are many other business entities like hotels, schools and land. The corruption cases surface in dollar terms because understandably those who offer bribe use the dollar. The statistics also indicate that there has been growing trend of foreign deposits as share of the total deposits, also referred to as dollarization. This by June 2015 stood at 43%. This makes Uganda one of the most dollarized economies in the world. Increasingly also the commercial banks hold significant assets in particular loans in foreign currency; foreign currency loans account for 45% of the total loans. The trend has been growing, like cockroaches, you never only seen one. The private sector expectations have been triggered with the trend likely to continue to grow, as foreign currency is seen as currency for the future. Dollarization in part reflects growing inflationary and volatile outlook, in particular with investors holding non-monetary assets priced in foreign currency rather than investing abroad. Zimbabwe is one recent example, as a result of hyperinflation and associated depreciated currency value of ZW$10 billion to 0.33 US$ in July 2008, was forced to adopt the use foreign currencies (USD, EURO and Rand) as official currencies. This is what is regarded as official dollarization. In African History, 24 other African economies have practiced official dollarisation, some as a result of colonisation while others as result of economic, social and political disturbances. Uganda's previous dollarization was between 1906 and 1920, when the East African Rupee was used

Uganda today grapples with de facto dollarization, where there has been a gradual adoption of the dollar by the general public without deliberate support from government legislation. If the trend is not reversed, it could have far reaching effects on economy through various transmission mechanisms. The most obvious and direct channel being compromising effectiveness of the bank of Uganda monetary policy conduct. The increased dollarization literally means strength of the dollar against the shilling, implying it would first and foremost keep the central bank at its toes in trying to ensure stability of the exchange rate, in the extreme at peril of drawdown of its reserves. The reserves have since 2008 deteriorated from 6 months of import value to the current 4 months of import, in part owing to the stabilisation efforts of the exchange rate by Bank of Uganda as well as fiscal slippages. In addition, the exchange rate depreciation exacerbates inflation expectations, as highlighted in the July monetary policy statement; it is expected to be between 8-10% over the next year. Management of the rapid depreciation of the exchange rate and the associated upward swings in inflation presents any central bank a nightmare bearing in mind the other supplementary objectives of creating a favourable environment for investment and growth as well as ensuring financial stability.  In the end, the central bank independence may be compromised.

By definition, broad money supply encompasses currency in circulation, local currency deposits (demand and savings) and the foreign currency deposits. With the latter growing sizeably implies the central bank's control of the money supply will be compromised as most of its instruments are tailored to controlling currency in circulation and the local currency deposits. The commercial banks, the main holders of the foreign currency deposits face a heightened foreign exchange risk exposure, mainly due to fact that foreign exchange deposits are responsive to the interest rate differentials (difference between local interest rates and regional or international rates).  

In a nutshell, dollarization is a response to economic instability including persistent depreciation of the local currency and high inflation, as investors diversify their asset portfolios. In the long run, the store of value, unit of value and the medium of exchange functions of the Uganda shilling will be compromised. Against this backdrop, the solutions should be tailored to addressing economic instability and this will require a concerted effort to address institutional, regulatory and structural bottlenecks to Uganda's competiveness. In absence of the addressing these, de-dollarisation direct measures are essential. Nigeria for example has put an embargo on importation of foreign currencies as well as the acceptance of foreign currency deposits by commercial banks into the country to stem the dollarisation of the economy.
http://www.monitor.co.ug/OpEd/Commentary/Dollarisation-of-our-economy-is-a-ticking-time-bomb/-/689364/2831930/-/11g8pliz/-/index.html

Corruption is an economic evil in the longrun.

Corruption is an economic evil( published in monitor on the 20th august 2015)

On the 11^th August 2015, while Andrew Mwenda was on NTV news night, he intimated that there is no evidence that corruption is an impediment economic development anywhere in the World. This statement is quite fallacious and ill-informed of the existing empirical evidence.  Mwenda's arguments were premised on largely correlation to argue causality.  Correlation however doesn't mean causality. Secondly, while economic growth and economic development are interchangeably used, they don’t mean the same. Economic development encompasses economic growth plus social economic transformation like poverty reduction, income inequality and improved human development indicators. A simplistic (however, contentious) measure of economic development is GDP per capita with countries that have a GDP per capita of USD 1045 are considered as low Income countries.

 In Mwenda's recent facebook post he argues that estimated corruption of about 10% of the annual budget is not the cause of bad services. He also points to the fact that recent efforts by Ministry of Finance cleanup of the register to remove ghost workers saved 230 billion in a wage bill of 3 trillion. That is about 7%.  While, poor service delivery is a manifestation of many factors including corruption, both are indicative of institutional and regulatory weakness. These arguably are very costly to a nation. To start with, 10% of the 2015/16 budget is UGX 1.85 trillion shillings and only 3 sectors of works and transport, energy and education have more. This amount compares favorably amount of interest payments by government for its debts and more than the amount government intends to borrow from the domestic market of UGX 1.4 trillion. The latter at current interest rates will attract interest payments above UGX 200 billion (50% of the agriculture budget). In short, if 10% of the budget is lost annually, a full year of the budget is lost every 10 years.

Common in literature and Mwenda's citation is the high-growth countries in East Asia exhibiting corruption tendencies inter alia of - bribery, patrimonialism, cronyism, and rent-seeking. What however, is often missed the primary growth drivers; inter alia the institutional strength and factor productivity reforms that were encountered in these economies. A recent study compares the Sub-Saharan Africa which includes many countries that are stagnating in the category of low-income countries; the same characteristics that were in many East Asian economies in the 1960s before exhibiting spectacular growth performances onwards. This study shows that East Asia has been characterised by growth-oriented governments and strong states, which have had the capacity to contain corruption and prevent threshold effects and the fall into lower equilibria. In East Asia, corruption exists but is controlled, channelled, and submitted to growth objectives because states have the capacity to achieve this.Forexample successful anticorruption campaigns in both Singapore and Hong Kong, China were implemented when they were both still relatively poor.  In contrast, in Sub- Saharan Africa, vicious circles and endogenous causalities may have created poverty traps, where weak states, predatory political regimes, generalised corruption, commodity-based market structures and windfall gains reinforce each other.

Corruption however is often intrinsically difficult to define and measure, so institutional and regulatory capacity can be used as proxy for corruption. Another commonly used is the Transparency International corruption Index which examines over 175 countries. In the top 21 countries, only 5 countries (New Zealand, Luxemburg, Iceland, Uruguay and Barbados) have a GDP of less than USD 200 billion. Of the 21 most corrupt countries, 19 of them have an annual GDP of less than $100 billion. The other two of Venezuela and Iraq each have GDP of above USD 200 billion.  The majority of low income countries, also associated with low Human Development Indicator scores, are associated with high corruption perception and this negative correlation provides prima facie evidence of the negative impact corruption has on value creation.

The corruption and economic growth consensus however remains mixed, with a few studies indicating corruption can actually spur economic growth at least in the short run. Essentially corruption (public) spurs private sector creation-as exhibited by the growing private infrastructure and businesses but at the cost of public infrastructure which is too is a fundamental driver of growth. Corruption breeds ironies for example officials of ministry of education taking their kids to private schools.  

In a literal lenses( captioned from discussion with a few colleagues), I'll illustrate with a few crude examples Police accepts bribes for issuance of driving permits or let off a reckless driver – Now quantify the cost of lives lost (include impact on dependants) and serious injuries due road carnage which flourishes because of corruption has allowed untrained drivers/riders on the road; Medical equipments are stolen, monies for repairs of equipments swindled, drugs diverted to private clinics, medical doctors abscond from work, fake HiV results, Global fund swindled etc – how many lives lost due to these malaise (infant mortality, maternal mortality etc)? What are the social and economic costs? Substandard roads works, axle load control disregarded, narrower roads, roads without signs etc – how much damage to the economy that this cause? At what cost? Teachers abscond, shoddy or incomplete classrooms constructed or money swindled altogether hence the future of children, especially belong to the poor is left in ruin. In economic terms, how much are the total cost of these children's future. Pensioners are defrauded, ghosts earn more than real people, real people are paid peanuts, not paid for months etc

Corruption may have considerable adverse effects on economic growth, largely by reducing private investment, and perhaps by worsening the composition of public expenditure and revenue, thereby undermining public trust in the government. This diminishes its ability to fulfil its core task of providing adequate public services and a conducive environment for private sector development. In the long run, corruption associated growth may dwindle and wealth distribution challenges may entail the delegitimization of the state, leading to severe political and economic instability. Corruption in Uganda has to be dealt with head on, small or big fish, and the quick wins start with addressing the inefficiencies in public entities that are rated highest in receiving bribes. Welfare audits may also come handy. Removing the Institutional and regulatory impediments to growth is better than circumventing them by corruption.