Three years ago, a colleague as
old Uganda's life expectancy (63 years) approached me for causal advice
on his rental units business that were fetching him revenue of about UGX
30 million per month and an annual gross income of UGX 360 million
assuming full occupancy. However, according to him the full occupancy
levels were averagely 10 months per year. I then advised him to sell his
property and at a price 10 times his annual rent revenue. He eventually
sold at UGX 3 billion. I further advised that he invests in government
securities (bonds and bills) as the rates were bound to increase since
government domestic borrowing was on the rife. In fact nearly UGX 5
trillion worth of government securities have been issued in the last 3
years and nearly UGX 1 trillion to be issued in FY 2017/18. Also owing
to upward periodic surge in inflation, the Central Bank reacts by
increasing the Central Bank Rate thus fostering an upward increase in
other short term interest rates including the treasury bills and bond
rates. Long story short, his annual his net annual return has averaged
between UGX 360-400mn.
Looking at the rental units buyer's perspective, it will take them about 20 years to have a break even. With an assumed annual income of UGX 300m-360million, it will take new owner about 10 years to recover the current face value of UGX 3bn which then will be will be of much less value. Contrary to the long term recoverability of real estate, over 60% of the cumulative private investments are in buildings and structures. One of the obvious reasons is that the return on real estate (inflation) will remain favourable. Contrary to the law of demand, when real estate prices increase, the demand tends to also increase in anticipation that prices will rise in near future. The vibrancy of real estate activities has been backstopped by the notable increase in share of private sector credit allocated to Building, Mortgage, Construction and Real Estate from 17% in 2009 to 22% in 2016, surpassing trade as the largest share of the private sector credit. Notably, the foreign currency loans to construction sector continued to rise at a faster rate, accounting for 28% all total foreign currency loans.
However, the recent trends are indicative of slowing economic activity. Over the last 6 years, economic growth the leading indicator of economic vibrancy has been short of its historical average rate by 2-3%. Growth is expected to reach to be 3.9% in FY 2016/17 (the second lowest growth rate since the early 1990s). Slow growth trends mean subdued demand and have implications on some segments of the economy particularly the real estate sector. The real estate activities have remained stagnant at 5.2% of GDP over the 2009-2015 period. This implies that its growth has been commensurate the slowing growth rate of the economy over the corresponding period. Relatedly, the construction sector growth has slowed from over 11% in 2009 to just 4% in 2015 despite the increased government infrastructure expenditure.
In 2016, the size of non-performing loans on the commercial banks books enlarged rapidly reaching 10% of gross loans - with largest share (21%) recorded in the building and construction sector. The risks were more pronounced for foreign exchange denominated loans largely underpinned by the depreciation of the shilling against the USD that has averaged 8% p.a since 2010.
In principle, when the real estate prices grow faster than economic growth, it becomes hard to sustain the bubble. The Bank of Uganda compiled real estate indicators (Land Price Index and Rental Property Index) though obsolete indicate that the prices have increased and rapidly except for Kampala Central where they reduced. The bubble has seemingly burst for commercial properties, as the commercial property index for the greater Kampala show that the prices have reduced by 25% points between December 2012 and September 2015.
In conclusion, the real estate remains largely informal, unregulated, over priced in urban centres and marred with information asymmetry which factors underscore structural challenges and long term risks to sector. Regulatory reforms especially in land subsector are expeditiously warranted. Remember
Looking at the rental units buyer's perspective, it will take them about 20 years to have a break even. With an assumed annual income of UGX 300m-360million, it will take new owner about 10 years to recover the current face value of UGX 3bn which then will be will be of much less value. Contrary to the long term recoverability of real estate, over 60% of the cumulative private investments are in buildings and structures. One of the obvious reasons is that the return on real estate (inflation) will remain favourable. Contrary to the law of demand, when real estate prices increase, the demand tends to also increase in anticipation that prices will rise in near future. The vibrancy of real estate activities has been backstopped by the notable increase in share of private sector credit allocated to Building, Mortgage, Construction and Real Estate from 17% in 2009 to 22% in 2016, surpassing trade as the largest share of the private sector credit. Notably, the foreign currency loans to construction sector continued to rise at a faster rate, accounting for 28% all total foreign currency loans.
However, the recent trends are indicative of slowing economic activity. Over the last 6 years, economic growth the leading indicator of economic vibrancy has been short of its historical average rate by 2-3%. Growth is expected to reach to be 3.9% in FY 2016/17 (the second lowest growth rate since the early 1990s). Slow growth trends mean subdued demand and have implications on some segments of the economy particularly the real estate sector. The real estate activities have remained stagnant at 5.2% of GDP over the 2009-2015 period. This implies that its growth has been commensurate the slowing growth rate of the economy over the corresponding period. Relatedly, the construction sector growth has slowed from over 11% in 2009 to just 4% in 2015 despite the increased government infrastructure expenditure.
In 2016, the size of non-performing loans on the commercial banks books enlarged rapidly reaching 10% of gross loans - with largest share (21%) recorded in the building and construction sector. The risks were more pronounced for foreign exchange denominated loans largely underpinned by the depreciation of the shilling against the USD that has averaged 8% p.a since 2010.
In principle, when the real estate prices grow faster than economic growth, it becomes hard to sustain the bubble. The Bank of Uganda compiled real estate indicators (Land Price Index and Rental Property Index) though obsolete indicate that the prices have increased and rapidly except for Kampala Central where they reduced. The bubble has seemingly burst for commercial properties, as the commercial property index for the greater Kampala show that the prices have reduced by 25% points between December 2012 and September 2015.
In conclusion, the real estate remains largely informal, unregulated, over priced in urban centres and marred with information asymmetry which factors underscore structural challenges and long term risks to sector. Regulatory reforms especially in land subsector are expeditiously warranted. Remember
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